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Tax Refund Estimator
Will you get a tax refund, or will you owe? Put in your income, what your employer already withheld, and any tax credits, and this tax refund estimator works out the difference for 2026.
Example filled in: $80,000 a year, single, $9,500 withheld, $2,000 in credits. Change any number below to run your own figures.
How to use this tax refund estimator
- Enter your annual income and filing status.
- Enter the total federal tax withheld from your paychecks for the year — add it up from your pay stubs or your W-2, box 2.
- Enter any tax credits, such as the child tax credit.
- The estimator figures your tax bill, subtracts what you already paid, and shows your refund — or what you owe.
Formula
Refund = federal tax withheld + tax credits − tax liability. Tax liability is figured the same way as on the tax calculator: income minus the standard deduction ($16,100 single / $32,200 married filing jointly / $24,150 head of household in 2026), then the simplified 2026 federal brackets. If the result is positive, that is your refund. If it is negative, that is what you owe.
Worked example — $80,000 with $9,500 withheld
$80,000 a year, single: taxable income is $63,900 and the tax bill is $8,830. With $9,500 withheld and $2,000 in credits, you paid $11,500 in total — $2,670 more than you owed — so the estimated refund is $2,670. If only $7,000 had been withheld and there were no credits, you would have paid $7,000 against an $8,830 bill, and you would owe $1,830. A refund is not free money from the IRS: it is your own money, paid in over the year and given back.
Frequently asked questions
When will I get my tax refund in 2026?
It depends on how you file. The IRS says most refunds arrive within 21 days when you e-file and choose direct deposit. A paper return takes longer, and a return with errors or missing forms can take longer still. This estimator only works out the amount — it cannot tell you the exact day.
Why did I get a smaller refund than last year?
Usually because less was withheld, or because a credit was smaller. If your pay went up but your withholding did not keep pace, more of the tax was left unpaid during the year, so less comes back at filing time. Compare your W-2, box 2, with last year to see the change.
Is a big tax refund good?
Not really. A big refund means you lent the IRS your money, interest-free, all year. A refund close to $0 means your withholding matched your tax bill — that is the aim. If your refund is large every year, check your W-4 with the tax withholding calculator.
What if I owe tax instead of getting a refund?
You pay the balance when you file. If the amount is large, check whether you need to change your W-4 so more is withheld next year, and ask a tax professional about estimated payments if you also have income without withholding, such as freelance pay.
Do tax credits change my refund?
Yes. Credits come straight off your tax bill, dollar for dollar, so $2,000 in credits adds $2,000 to your refund (or takes $2,000 off what you owe). Deductions are different: they only lower the income your tax is figured on.
How accurate is this refund estimate?
It is an estimate. It uses simplified 2026 brackets and the standard deduction, and it does not cover every credit, every kind of income, or state tax. Your real refund comes from your filed return.
Sources and 2026 figures. IRS Publication 15-T; IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32. Standard deduction 2026: $16,100 single / $32,200 married filing jointly / $24,150 head of household. Social Security wage base 2026: $184,500. Social Security 6.2%, Medicare 1.45% (+0.9% over $200,000). Results are estimates, not tax advice.
Estimate, not tax advice. This site uses simplified 2026 tables for illustration. Check your figures against IRS Publication 15-T and a tax professional.